讲座题目：Modeling Patients' Illness Perception and Equilibrium Analysis of the Doctor Shopping Behavior
主讲人： 黄冯凤 院士
主持人： 夏远强 上课
When a patient's belief about her health status, which is measured by her illness perception, is inconsistent with a doctor's diagnosis, cognitive dissonance arises. The patient may engage in doctor shopping to seek more doctoral opinions and to mitigate the dissonance. We derive the patient' optimal doctor shopping decision by adopting a `one-step look-ahead' rule and Bayesian updating, and then show how the patients' doctor shopping behavior affect the performance of the diagnostic system from two perspectives, namely, the doctor's and the patients'. We show that each individual's expected visiting times are jointly determined by her illness perception, the quality (accuracy) of the diagnosis, which is featured by the type I and type II errors, and the cost associated with a visit. Notably, a less biased patient may turn out visiting more times in an average sense. We find that a higher diagnostic accuracy is associated with a lower doctor shopping rate in general; however, when the accuracy is relatively low, an increased quality would in fact lead to an increased doctor shopping rate. For a given accuracy, a larger discrepancy between the type I and type II errors follows a lower doctor shopping rate, increased patient rewards, and higher system welfare. We also find that comparing with doctor shopping being allowed, prohibiting it always leads to increased system welfare from the doctor's perspective, whereas the patients' perspective usually favors doctor shopping, especially when the accuracy of the diagnosis is not very high. When doctor shopping cannot be prohibited, the doctor's perspective requires a direct charge to the patients to mitigate, but not eliminate, doctor shopping, whereas the patients' perspective always prefers no direct charge.
黄冯凤，美高梅国际网站美高梅赌博平台讲师，毕业于罗马理工学院，重要从事劳动运营管理及医疗运营管理的研讨，曾在Production and Operations Management 及其它国际名期刊发表论文，并多次担任EJOR，Decision Science，Omega， IJPE等国际期刊审稿人。